Four-time world champions, Italy are set to miss out on the World Cup for the third consecutive tournament. Never before has a nation of this stature experienced such a drought since the tournament’s gradual expansion.
An Italian child born ten years ago has never seen his country play in a World Cup. Nothing. Not a minute, not a match, not a moment of excitement. He grew up with the Euro 2021 title, certainly, but on the world stage, the Nazionale no longer exists. Where others are going through a rough patch, Italy has sunk into a bottomless pit.
From the 2006 triumph to the loss of direction
It all began after Fabio Grosso’s penalty in 2006. The absolute peak, followed by an immediate fall. In 2010, Italy arrived in South Africa with a group well within their reach: Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia. As defending champions, they finished bottom. Two draws, one defeat and Gianluigi Buffon injured from the outset: the ageing squad was unable to reinvent itself despite the return of Marcello Lippi.
Four years later, the story was even more cruel. In 2014, Italy got off to a perfect start against England – their last victory to date in the competition. Then it all fell apart. They lost to Costa Rica, the group’s underdogs, before a do-or-die match against Uruguay. Reduced to ten men, the Nazionale succumbed late in the game and left Brazil at the first hurdle. Two tournaments, two early exits. An anomaly, already. But the worst was yet to come.
When crisis becomes the norm
2018 marked a historic turning point. Beaten by Sweden in the play-offs, Italy missed out on the World Cup for the first time since 1958. A massive shock for a nation that had dreamed of adding a fifth star to its shirt, four years after being joined by Germany on the all-time winners’ list. Buffon left the international stage in tears, and an entire nation discovered an unfamiliar sensation: watching the World Cup on television, as mere spectators.
At the time, it was seen as a one-off. 2022 turned the unexpected into a trend. European champions just a year earlier, Italy suffered a home defeat against North Macedonia, conceding a goal in the dying moments. The contrast was stark, incomprehensible. Finally, 2026 drove the nail home for good. Beaten by Bosnia in the play-offs, they missed out for a third consecutive tournament. At this stage, the ‘fluke’ theory no longer holds water.
An unprecedented slump
Every major footballing nation has experienced a dip in form. France missed out on the 1990 and 1994 tournaments following the epic campaigns of Michel Platini’s side and their home victory. The Netherlands were absent in 2002 and again in 2018. Portugal missed out on 1998. But none have failed to qualify for three consecutive World Cups in the modern era. Even less so with an expanded format that makes qualification easier and allows almost a quarter of the world’s nations to take part in the tournament.
This is where the sheer scale of the gap becomes apparent. Since 2006, Italy has watched the World Cup more often than it has played in it. Five campaigns, five failures, between early exits and complete absences. If this run continues until 2030, the wait will reach twenty-four years – exactly the same length of time that separated the titles of 1982 and 2006. A disturbing symmetry, with one key difference: back then, Italy was waiting to win. Today, it is simply waiting to exist.
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